🌎Macro Brain

Your panel agrees growth is decelerating and liquidity is the dominant driver. They split on whether this ends in a soft landing, a credit event, or renewed inflation.

The themes your panel returned to most across 116 supported sources.

• Second-wave inflation risk
• Soft landing versus credit event
• Liquidity is the dominant market driver this cycle
• Labour-market data is deteriorating at the margin

• Liquidity is the dominant market driver this cycle
• Fiscal dominance is a structural feature, not a phase
• Labour-market data is deteriorating at the margin

Disagreement is preserved, never averaged away.

• Soft landing versus credit event
• Second-wave inflation risk
• Duration positioning

• 5 hours ago — Dissent widened after the latest print
• This week — Recession odds raised by 2 panelists
• This quarter — Agreement fell from 66% to 58%

• 9 new sources entered the record this period.
• Dissent widened after the latest print
• Agreement is at 58% across 12 tracked experts.

• Lyn Alden

  Reiterated their position on liquidity is the dominant market driver this cycle.

• Luke Gromen

  Pushed back on second-wave inflation risk.

• Jeff Booth

  Added new material this period; position unchanged.

• Raoul Pal

  Reiterated their position on liquidity is the dominant market driver this cycle.

• Russell Napier

  Pushed back on second-wave inflation risk.

• Michael Howell

  Added new material this period; position unchanged.

• Jim Bianco

  Reiterated their position on liquidity is the dominant market driver this cycle.

• Brent Johnson

  Pushed back on second-wave inflation risk.

• Second-wave inflation risk40
• Soft landing versus credit event22
• Liquidity is the dominant market driver this cycle18
• Labour-market data is deteriorating at the margin15
• Fiscal dominance is a structural feature, not a phase10
• Duration positioning10

The minority position worth taking seriously: Duration positioning. It is held by a small part of your panel but is supported by evidence in the record.

• What changed overnight?
• Are we heading toward recession?
• Where do experts disagree about liquidity?
• What risks increased this week?

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